CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T12:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33703/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME observed in SOHO LASCO, and full halo directed slightly more eastward in STEREO COR2A. The source is an X9.0 flare from AR 3842 observed in many wavelengths but mainly SDO AIA 131, starting at 2024-10-03T12:08Z and peaking at T12:18Z. Also observed as an EUV wave and dimming in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284, with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature is characterized by a shock: a sharp initial jump in magnetic field (Bz: 6.16nT to 14.46nT, Bt: 8.41nT to 14.94nT) with continued fluctuation as the signature has progressed (peak Bt is 16.2nT). There were also enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 372km/s to 525km/s), temperature (approx. 75kK to approx. 250kK) and particle density (approx. 1p/cc to approx. 3p/cc). Bz has remained mostly positive in the initial phase. While this signature is likely the result of the arrival of the 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME associated with the X9.0 flare from AR 3842, several preceding CMEs may have been swept into the front of the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T06:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T01:15Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 85.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
SIDC URSIGRAM 41004
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Oct 2024, 1257UT
Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was very high over
the past 24 hours, with an X-class flare and 7 M-class flares identified.
The largest flare was an X9.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2210) peaking on Oct 03 at
12:18 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active
Regions 3823, 3842). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 257; AR
3823, 3842) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its
photospheric magnetic field.
Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 12:48 UTC on Oct 03. This CME was associated with
an X9.0 flare, which peaked at 12:18 UTC on Oct 03, produced by the SIDC
Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA AR 3842, S15 W03). Associated type IV and type II
radio emissions were detected at 12:17 UTC and 12:18 UTC, respectively,
during this flaring activity. The EUV wave was also observed. It has a
projected speed of about 850 km/s. With its source region located closer to
the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth on Oct 05-06.
sidctech@oma.be
2024-10-04T09:29:57
450
0
CME_arrival
2024-10-06T01:15:00
Lead Time: 45.43 hour(s)Difference: 5.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-10-04T09:29Z
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